On the eve of the Australian Federal Election

… and having considered the various probabilities according to both Bayesian and frequentist models, this is my prediction of the result:

1. “The budget is worse than we thought.”

2. “Everyone understands that just like households we have to live within our means, tighten our belts, we’re all in this together.”*

3. Labor Party ramps up the derp about Working Families, this time “hurting.” Non-Labor Left doesn’t understand why households and national economies are not the same thing, bipolarity results: some fall into deeper depression to match the recession, others veer to the manic side, mutter about “militancy,” need to organise more and better demonstrations.

4. Same thing again at the next election, after another rallying of Racist Pride. (What, I wonder, could the connection be?!)

*Update, Sept 5: I forgot to add “Australian infrastructure” … Which, in effect, is the point, and the terrain of contestation, and the project I’ve been preoccupied with: How to think about infrastructure differently?  … beyond its national, familial/racial, individuated forms?


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